Detection Of Mortality Clusters Associated With Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza In Poultry: A Theoretical Analysis

Rapid detection of infectious disease outbreaks is often crucial for their effective control. One example is highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) such as H5N1 in commercial poultry flocks.


There is no quantitative data, however, on how quickly the effects of HPAI infection in poultry flocks can be detected.


Here, we study, using an individual-based mathematical model, time to detection in chicken flocks. Detection is triggered when mortality, food or water intake or egg production in layers pass recommended thresholds suggested from the experience of past HPAI outbreaks.


We suggest a new threshold for caged flocks-the cage mortality detection threshold-as a more sensitive threshold than current ones. Time to detection is shown to depend nonlinearly on R0 and is particularly sensitive for R0!10.


It also depends logarithmically on flock size and number of birds per cage. We also examine how many false alarms occur in uninfected flocks when we vary detection thresholds owing to background mortality.


Journal of the Royal Society Interface


Journal of the Royal Society Interface is the Society's cross-disciplinary publication promoting research at the interface between the physical and life sciences. It offers rapidity, visibility and high-quality peer review and is ranked fourth in JCR'S multidisciplinary category.


Journal of the Royal Society Interface